European Union Emissions Trading System (EUETS)

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has long been a global benchmark for the price of carbon dioxide. The ETS price rose sharply in 2025 from slightly lower levels in 2024. ETS is currently trading at around EUR 90/ton and is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The main reasons for the increase are improved economic conditions and increased production, as well as stricter emission requirements and reforms.

The carbon credit market is affected by the outside world

The US's actions in Venezuela in recent weeks have caused oil prices to fall, which means that we are likely to see higher demand for oil – and thus higher prices – within the ETS. Analyses also predict an increase in price volatility ahead of and during 2027, when the ETS expands to include the construction and transport sectors. It is very likely that we will see record price peaks above EUR 110/tonne during the year.

When we help companies with internal carbon pricing, our assessment is that the EU ETS provides a good indication of the price companies should set for their emissions – their carbon waste. This indication suggests that most companies should expect an internal price of SEK 1,000-1,500 per ton. Our recommendation is that part of this should be set aside to finance carbon credits.

Is your company currently affected by ETS, or will you be affected by ETS2? If so, it may be worthwhile to review your strategy for trading emission allowances. Contact us at ZeroMission learn more.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

CBAM started in January 2026 with the aim of leveling the playing field for companies covered by the ETS, so that the corresponding cost is borne by importers of carbon-intensive products and materials such as steel and cement. Contact us if you would like to know more about how CBAM affects you.

Article 6 Paris Agreement

There has been a lot of talk about Article 6 credits – known as ITMOS (Internationally Traded Mitigation Outcomes) – in recent years. Article 6 defines how countries can trade carbon credits between themselves in order to achieve their respective national climate targets. How this will work between countries is relatively logical. It becomes more difficult when companies want to participate and contribute to this market. It is still unclear what kind of claims companies will be able to make with these credits, but our assessment is that this will be crucial to their interest in participating in the market.

ZeroMission one of two companies participating in a pilot project together with the Swedish Energy Agency and the Swiss government to demonstrate a transaction involving these credits. The schedule for the pilot project is for agreements and trading to take place in 2026, with delivery of 1 ton of captured carbon dioxide in 2027-2028.

The voluntary market for carbon credits – Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM)

The voluntary market has taken major steps toward maturity and stability over the past two years. This has been driven primarily by two challenges. The first concerns how companies communicate and report their emissions and purchases of carbon credits. When this has been done in an unclear or non-transparent manner, it has led to discussions about greenwashing and debates about companies trying to buy their way out of responsibility.

The second challenge has been the poor quality and integrity of credits on the market. Often, low-cost credits from large-scale projects certified under the VERRA standard have failed to deliver the climate benefits that were sold.

Quality premium: why certified carbon credits are increasing in value

This has affected the entire market and led to the market doing a great deal to strengthen the methods it uses to measure, verify, and communicate about its projects. This has shifted the focus to increasingly high-quality premium credits with various quality labels such as ICVCM (The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market) and CCP (Core Carbon Principals). ZeroMission this improvement in the market.

The EU has also been working on its own verification of carbon credit quality under the name CRCF (Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming). In 2026, the first methods within this new framework will be approved—and probably the first projects—to be approved within CRCF, and thus also the first credits to reach the market.

However, the increased focus on measurement, verification, and certification is not only positive. It also makes it more difficult and expensive, especially for small-scale projects, to get by and, not least, to survive the tough first few years before the project is certified and can start selling carbon credits.

The price trend for VCM credits is likely to continue rising in 2026, given that low-cost projects are being phased out and more rigorous certification processes are driving up costs. Another strong indicator of rising prices is the demand for carbon credits.

Carbon credits through ZeroMission

The increased price levels and volatility in the EU ETS market pose increased risks for those covered by the trading system. At ZeroMission , we ZeroMission help you with credits in all markets, with market analyses and with trading emission allowances at the right times.